Interventions to Prevent Hospital Admissions in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Rapid Review of Economic Evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Hospital admissions can be hazardous for older adults, particularly those living in long-term care facilities. Preventing nonessential admissions can be beneficial for this population, as well as reducing demand on health services. This review summarizes the economic evidence surrounding effective interventions to reduce hospital attendances and admissions for people living in long-term care facilities. DESIGN: Rapid review of economic evidence. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: People living in long-term facilities. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, PubMed, and Web of Science on September 20, 2022, and again on January 10, 2023. Full economic evaluations and cost analyses reporting on advanced care planning, goals of care setting, nurse practitioner input, palliative care, influenza vaccinations, and enhancing access to intravenous therapies were eligible. Data were extracted using a prepiloted data extraction form and critically appraised using either the Drummond-Jefferson checklist or an amended NIH Critical Appraisal Tool appended with questions from a critical appraisal checklist for cost analyses. Data were synthesized narratively. RESULTS: We included 7 studies: 3 full economic evaluations and 4 cost analyses. Because of lack of clarity on the underlying study design, we did not include one of the cost analyses in our synthesis. Advanced care planning, a palliative care program, and a high-dose influenza vaccination reported potential cost savings. Economic evidence for a multicomponent intervention and a nurse practitioner model was inconclusive. The overall quality of the evidence varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A number of potentially cost-effective approaches to reduce demand on hospital services from long-term care facilities were identified. However, further economic evaluations are needed to overcome limitations of the current evidence base and offer more confident conclusions.

Interventions for cold homes: a rapid review of the health impacts.

BACKGROUND: Cold homes are associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes for older people. To mitigate this risk, homes need to be heated to an appropriate temperature. This review aims to identify interventions designed to improve heating and temperatures within homes and summarize its impact on health, health service utilization and cost effectiveness. METHODS: A rapid review was conducted. Studies assessing the effects of structural, financial, or behavioural interventions designed to improve home temperatures of residents aged 18+ years were eligible. Searches were carried out in four databases. A search for grey literature, and backward and forward citation searching were performed. Data were summarized in a narrative synthesis and mapped using EPPI-Reviewer and EPPI-Mapper software. RESULTS: Eighteen studies reported across 19 publications were included. Structural interventions were associated with better mental health and quality of life, a reduction in health service utilization, and improvements in satisfaction with internal home temperature, social interactions and financial difficulties. The impact on physical health outcomes varied by age, gender and long-term conditions. Evidence about the impact of behavioural interventions was inconsistent. CONCLUSION: Structural improvements to increase home temperatures may offer the potential to improve some aspects of health. However, the impact on physical health, including which groups are most likely to benefit, is unclear. Key gaps include the lack of evidence about the impact of financial interventions, and the impact of all types of interventions, on quality of life, mortality and costs.

What works to support carers of older people and older carers? an international evidence map of interventions and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Unpaid carers of older people, and older unpaid carers, experience a range of adverse outcomes. Supporting carers should therefore be a public health priority. Our understanding of what works to support carers could be enhanced if future evaluations prioritise under-researched interventions and outcomes. To support this, we aimed to: map evidence about interventions to support carers, and the outcomes evaluated; and identify key gaps in current evidence. METHODS: Evidence gap map review methods were used. Searches were carried out in three bibliographic databases for quantitative evaluations of carer interventions published in OECD high-income countries between 2013 and 2023. Interventions were eligible if they supported older carers (50 + years) of any aged recipient, or any aged carers of older people (50 + years). FINDINGS: 205 studies reported across 208 publications were included in the evidence map. The majority evaluated the impact of therapeutic and educational interventions on carer burden and carers' mental health. Some studies reported evidence about physical exercise interventions and befriending and peer support for carers, but these considered a limited range of outcomes. Few studies evaluated interventions that focused on delivering financial information and advice, pain management, and physical skills training for carers. Evaluations rarely considered the impact of interventions on carers' physical health, quality of life, and social and financial wellbeing. Very few studies considered whether interventions delivered equitable outcomes. CONCLUSION: Evidence on what works best to support carers is extensive but limited in scope. A disproportionate focus on mental health and burden outcomes neglects other important areas where carers may need support. Given the impact of caring on carers' physical health, financial and social wellbeing, future research could evaluate interventions that aim to support these outcomes. Appraisal of whether interventions deliver equitable outcomes across diverse carer populations is critical.

Characteristics of older unpaid carers in England: a study of social patterning from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of older people provide unpaid care, but contemporary research evidence on this group is limited. AIM: This study aims to describe the characteristics of older people who provide unpaid care and how these vary by socioeconomic position. METHODS: Using recent information from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA wave 9, 2019), we analysed cross-sectional data on 1,282 unpaid carers aged ≥50. Data on sociodemographics, health, social wellbeing, care intensity and caregiver-recipient relationships were extracted. Total net non-pension wealth quintiles were used as a relative measure of socioeconomic position. Differences between the poorest and richest wealth quintiles were examined through logistic regression. FINDINGS: Most older carers in ELSA were female and looking after another older person. Poor mental and physical health and social isolation were common, and socially patterned. Compared with carers in the middle wealth group, the poorest group were more likely to be living with the person they cared for (odds ratio (OR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.36]) and more likely to experience loneliness (OR 2.29 [95% CI 1.42-3.69]), dependency (i.e. the need for help with activities of daily living) (OR 1.62 [95% CI 1.05-2.51]), chronic pain (OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.23-2.67]), a higher number of diseases (OR 1.75 [95% CI 1.15-2.65]) and fair/poor self-rated health (OR 2.59 [95% CI 1.79-3.76]). The poorest carers were also less likely to have a high quality of life (OR 0.51 [95% CI 0.33-0.80]) or be in work (OR 0.33 [95% CI 0.19-0.59]). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that financially disadvantaged unpaid carers (and their households) may have the greatest needs for intervention and support. Focussing resources on this group has potential to address social inequalities.

Variations in older people's emergency care use by social care setting: a systematic review of international evidence.

BACKGROUND: Older adults' use of social care and their healthcare utilization are closely related. Residents of care homes access emergency care more often than the wider older population; however, less is known about emergency care use across other social care settings. SOURCES OF DATA: A systematic review was conducted, searching six electronic databases between January 2012 and February 2022. AREAS OF AGREEMENT: Older people access emergency care from a variety of community settings. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: Differences in study design contributed to high variation observed between studies. GROWING POINTS: Although data were limited, findings suggest that emergency hospital attendance is lowest from nursing homes and highest from assisted living facilities, whilst emergency admissions varied little by social care setting. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: There is a paucity of published research on emergency hospital use from social care settings, particularly home care and assisted living facilities. More attention is needed on this area, with standardized definitions to enable comparisons between studies.

Systematic review of the relationship between burn-out and spiritual health in doctors.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between burn-out and spiritual health among medical doctors. DESIGN: Systematic literature review and narrative synthesis of cross-sectional studies. SETTING: Any setting, worldwide. DATA SOURCES: Five databases were searched from inception to March 2022, including Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus and Web of Science. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Any study design that involved medical doctors (and other healthcare staff if assessed alongside medical doctors), that measured (in any way) both burn-out (or similar) and spiritual health (or similar) medical doctors. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: All records were double screened. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and a proportion (10%) checked by a second reviewer. Quality was assessed using the Appraisal of Cross-sectional Studies tool. Due to the heterogeneity of the included studies, a narrative review was undertaken without a meta-analysis. RESULTS: Searches yielded 1049 studies. 40 studies met eligibility criteria and were included in this review. Low reported levels of spirituality were associated with high burn-out scores and vice versa. Religion was not significantly associated with lower levels of burn-out. Few studies reported statistically significant findings, few used validated spiritual scores and most were vulnerable to sampling bias. CONCLUSIONS: Published research suggests that burn-out is linked to spiritual health in medical doctors but not to religion. Robust research is needed to confirm these findings and develop effective interventions. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020200145.

Promoting sexual health in older adults: Findings from two rapid reviews.

BACKGROUND: Sexual health throughout the life course is increasingly recognised as important to maintaining one's overall health, wellbeing, and relationships. We aimed to provide an overview of the evidence on sexual health needs and sexual health promotion in later life. METHODS: We undertook two rapid reviews, drawing on systematic review evidence. Searches were conducted in Epistemonikos. Studies were eligible if they reported evidence about the sexual health needs of, or sexual health promotion interventions for, people aged 50+ years. Evidence was quality assessed and summarised in a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Fifteen systematic reviews were included in Review 1 (sexual health needs) and 12 in Review 2 (interventions). Key concerns and needs of older adults included the impacts of cultural stigma/misperceptions, barriers to sexual expression, and a need for tailored support in a welcoming environment. Key concerns and needs of health and social care professionals included mixed attitudes towards and knowledge of later-life sexuality and a need for more training and education. Approaches to promoting sexual health in later life included training and workshops for care home professionals, education for older people at risk of/living with HIV, and interventions to address sexual health-related symptoms of menopause. Gaps in the evidence from current reviews and methodological issues in primary studies were identified. CONCLUSION: Older people have specific needs relating to their sexual health. Health and social care professionals working with older people may benefit from education/training around sexuality in later life. Evidence on effective interventions and strategies is limited.

What matters to people with multiple long-term conditions and their carers?

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple long-term conditions is increasing worldwide. This presents challenges for health and care systems, which must adapt to meet the needs of this population. This study drew on existing data to understand what matters to people living with multiple long-term conditions and identify priorities for future research. METHODS: Two studies were conducted. (1) A secondary thematic analysis of interview, survey and workshop data collected from the 2017 James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership for Older People with Multiple Conditions, and patient and public involvement workshops; (2) a review of ongoing research and published research priorities, relating to older people (80+) living with multiple long-term conditions. FINDINGS: Older people with multiple long-term conditions identified a number of key concerns: access to care, support for both the patient and their carer, physical and mental health and well-being and identifying opportunities for early prevention. The review identified no published research priorities or ongoing research focusing specifically on populations aged over 80 years with multiple long-term conditions. CONCLUSION: Older people living with multiple long-term conditions experience care that is inadequate for their needs. A holistic approach to care that extends beyond treating single conditions will ensure wide-ranging needs are met. As multimorbidity rises worldwide, this is a critical message for practitioners across health and care settings. We also recommend key areas that should be given greater focus in future research and policy to inform effective and meaningful forms of support for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

Which interventions are effective at decreasing or increasing emergency department attendances or hospital admissions from long-term care facilities? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: UK long-term care facility residents account for 185 000 emergency hospital admissions each year. Avoidance of unnecessary hospital transfers benefits residents, reduces demand on the healthcare systems but is difficult to implement. We synthesised evidence on interventions that influence unplanned hospital admissions or attendances by long-term care facility residents. METHODS: This is a systematic review of randomised controlled trials. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library were searched from 2012 to 2022, building on a review published in 2013. We included randomised controlled trials that evaluated interventions that influence (decrease or increase) acute hospital admissions or attendances of long-term care facility residents. Risk of bias and evidence quality were assessed using Cochrane Risk Of Bias-2 and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation. RESULTS: Forty-three randomised studies were included in this review. A narrative synthesis was conducted and the weight of evidence described with vote counting. Advance care planning and goals of care setting appear to be effective at reducing hospitalisations from long-term care facilities. Other effective interventions, in order of increasing risk of bias, were: nurse practitioner/specialist input, palliative care intervention, influenza vaccination and enhancing access to intravenous therapies in long-term care facilities. CONCLUSIONS: Factors that affect hospitalisation and emergency department attendances of long-term care facility residents are complex. This review supports the already established use of advance care planning and influenza vaccination to reduce unscheduled hospital attendances. It is likely that more than one intervention will be needed to impact on healthcare usage across the long-term care facility population. The findings of this review are useful to identify effective interventions that can be combined, as well as highlighting interventions that either need evaluation or are not effective at decreasing healthcare usage. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020169604.

Factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in later life: a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

BACKGROUND: populations are considered to have an 'unmet need' when they could benefit from, but do not get, the necessary support. Policy efforts to achieve equitable access to long-term care require an understanding of patterns of unmet need. A systematic review was conducted to identify factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in later life. METHODS: seven bibliographic databases and four non-bibliographic evidence sources were searched. Quantitative observational studies and qualitative systematic reviews were included if they reported factors associated with unmet need for support to maintain independence in populations aged 50+, in high-income countries. No limits to publication date were imposed. Studies were quality assessed and a narrative synthesis used, supported by forest plots to visualise data. FINDINGS: forty-three quantitative studies and 10 qualitative systematic reviews were included. Evidence across multiple studies suggests that being male, younger age, living alone, having lower levels of income, poor self-rated health, more functional limitations and greater severity of depression were linked to unmet need. Other factors that were reported in single studies were also identified. In the qualitative reviews, care eligibility criteria, the quality, adequacy and absence of care, and cultural and language barriers were implicated in unmet need. CONCLUSIONS: this review identifies which groups of older people may be most at risk of not accessing the support they need to maintain independence. Ongoing monitoring of unmet need is critical to support policy efforts to achieve equal ageing and equitable access to care.

Measuring older people's socioeconomic position: a scoping review of studies of self-rated health, health service and social care use.

BACKGROUND: The challenges of measuring socioeconomic position in older populations were first set out two decades ago. However, the question of how best to measure older people's socioeconomic position remains pertinent as populations age and health inequalities widen. METHODS: A scoping review aimed to identify and appraise measures of socioeconomic position used in studies of health inequalities in older populations in high-income countries. Medline, Scopus, EMBASE, HMIC and references lists of systematic reviews were searched for observational studies of socioeconomic health inequalities in adults aged 60 years and over, published between 2000 and 2020. A narrative synthesis was conducted. FINDINGS: One-hundred and thirty-eight studies were included; 20 approaches to measuring socioeconomic position were identified. Few studies considered which pathways the chosen measures of socioeconomic position intended to capture. The validity of subjective socioeconomic position measures, and measures that assume shared income and educational capital, should be verified in older populations. Incomplete financial data risk under-representation of some older groups when missing data are socially patterned. Older study samples were largely homogeneous on measures of housing tenure, and to a lesser extent, measures of educational attainment. Measures that use only two response categories risk missing subtle differences in older people's socioeconomic circumstances. CONCLUSION: Poor choice of measures of socioeconomic position risk underestimating the size of health inequalities in older populations. Choice of measures should be shaped by considerations of theory, context and response categories that detect subtle, yet important, inequalities. Further evidence is required to ascertain the validity of some measures identified in this review.

Effects of Digital Technologies on Older People's Access to Health and Social Care: Umbrella Review.

BACKGROUND: The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic prompted the rapid implementation of new and existing digital technologies to facilitate access to health and care services during physical distancing. Older people may be disadvantaged in that regard if they are unable to use or have access to smartphones, tablets, computers, or other technologies. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we synthesized evidence on the impact of digital technologies on older adults' access to health and social services. METHODS: We conducted an umbrella review of systematic reviews published from January 2000 to October 2019 using comprehensive searches of 6 databases. We looked for reviews in a population of adults aged ≥65 years in any setting, reporting outcomes related to the impact of technologies on access to health and social care services. RESULTS: A total of 7 systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria, providing data from 77 randomized controlled trials and 50 observational studies. All of them synthesized findings from low-quality primary studies, 2 of which used robust review methods. Most of the reviews focused on digital technologies to facilitate remote delivery of care, including consultations and therapy. No studies examined technologies used for first contact access to care, such as online appointment scheduling. Overall, we found no reviews of technology to facilitate first contact access to health and social care such as online appointment booking systems for older populations. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of digital technologies on equitable access to services for older people is unclear. Research is urgently needed in order to understand the positive and negative consequences of digital technologies on health care access and to identify the groups most vulnerable to exclusion.

What are the consequences of caring for older people and what interventions are effective for supporting unpaid carers? A rapid review of systematic reviews.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and map evidence about the consequences of unpaid caring for all carers of older people, and effective interventions to support this carer population. DESIGN: A rapid review of systematic reviews, focused on the consequences for carers of unpaid caring for older people, and interventions to support this heterogeneous group of carers. Reviews of carers of all ages were eligible, with any outcome measures relating to carers' health, and social and financial well-being. Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, PsycInfo and Epistemonikos (January 2000 to January 2020). Records were screened, and included systematic reviews were quality appraised. Summary data were extracted and a narrative synthesis produced. RESULTS: Twelve systematic reviews reporting evidence about the consequences of caring for carers (n=6) and assessing the effectiveness of carer interventions (n=6) were included. The review evidence typically focused on mental health outcomes, with little information identified about carers' physical, social and financial well-being. Clear estimates of the prevalence and severity of carer outcomes, and how these differ between carers and non-carers, were absent. A range of interventions were identified, but there was no strong evidence of effectiveness. In some studies, the choice of outcome measure may underestimate the full impact of an intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence fails to fully quantify the impacts that caring for older people has on carers' health and well-being. Information on social patterning of the consequences of caring is absent. Systematic measurement of a broad range of outcomes, with comparison to the general population, is needed to better understand the true consequences of caring. Classification of unpaid caring as a social determinant of health could be an effective lever to bring greater focus and support to this population. Further work is needed to develop and identify suitable interventions in order to support evidence-based policymaking and practice.

Identifying older adults with frailty approaching end-of-life: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: People with frailty may have specific needs for end-of-life care, but there is no consensus on how to identify these people in a timely way, or whether they will benefit from intervention. AIM: To synthesise evidence on identification of older people with frailty approaching end-of-life, and whether associated intervention improves outcomes. DESIGN: Systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020462624). DATA SOURCES: Six databases were searched, with no date restrictions, for articles reporting prognostic or intervention studies. Key inclusion criteria were adults aged 65 and over, identified as frail via an established measure. End-of-life was defined as the final 12 months. Key exclusion criteria were proxy definitions of frailty, or studies involving people with cancer, even if also frail. RESULTS: Three articles met the inclusion criteria. Strongest evidence came from one study in English primary care, which showed distinct trajectories in electronic Frailty Index scores in the last 12 months of life, associated with increased risk of death. We found no studies evaluating established clinical tools (e.g. Gold Standards Framework) with existing frail populations. We found no intervention studies; the literature on advance care planning with people with frailty has relied on proxy definitions of frailty. CONCLUSION: Clear implications for policy and practice are hindered by the lack of studies using an established approach to assessing frailty. Future end-of-life research needs to use explicit approaches to the measurement and reporting of frailty, and address the evidence gap on interventions. A focus on models of care that incorporate a palliative approach is essential.

Trends in health expectancies: a systematic review of international evidence.

OBJECTIVES: A clear understanding of whether increases in longevity are spent in good health is necessary to support ageing, health and care-related policy. DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review to update and summarise evidence on trends in health expectancies, in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) high-income countries. DATA SOURCES: Four electronic databases (MEDLINE, 1946-19 September 2019; Embase 1980-2019 week 38; Scopus 1966-22 September 2019, Health Management Information Consortium, 1979-September 2019), and the UK Office for National Statistics website (November 2019). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: English language studies published from 2016 that reported trends in healthy, active and/or disability-free life expectancy in an OECD high-income country. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Records were screened independently by two researchers. Study quality was assessed using published criteria designed to identify sources of bias in studies reporting trends, and evidence summarised by narrative synthesis. FINDINGS: Twenty-eight publications from 11 countries were included, covering periods from 6 to 40 years, between 1970 and 2017. In most countries, gains in healthy and disability-free life expectancy do not match the growth in total life expectancy. Exceptions were demonstrated for women in Sweden, where there were greater gains in disability-free years than life expectancy. Gains in healthy and disability-free life expectancy were greater for men than women in most countries except the USA (age 85), Japan (birth), Korea (age 65) and Sweden (age 77). CONCLUSION: An expansion of disability in later life is evident in a number of high-income countries, with implications for the sustainability of health and care systems. The recent COVID-19 pandemic may also impact health expectancies in the longer term.

Measuring frailty in younger populations: a rapid review of evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Frailty is typically assessed in older populations. Identifying frailty in adults aged under 60 years may also have value, if it supports the delivery of timely care. We sought to identify how frailty is measured in younger populations, including evidence of the impact on patient outcomes and care. DESIGN: A rapid review of primary studies was conducted. DATA SOURCES: Four databases, three sources of grey literature and reference lists of systematic reviews were searched in March 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Eligible studies measured frailty in populations aged under 60 years using experimental or observational designs, published after 2000 in English. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Records were screened against review criteria. Study data were extracted with 20% of records checked for accuracy by a second researcher. Data were synthesised using a narrative approach. RESULTS: We identified 268 studies that measured frailty in samples that included people aged under 60 years. Of these, 85 studies reported evidence about measure validity. No measures were identified that were designed and validated to identify frailty exclusively in younger groups. However, in populations that included people aged over and under 60 years, cumulative deficit frailty indices, phenotype measures, the FRAIL Scale, the Liver Frailty Index and the Short Physical Performance Battery all demonstrated predictive validity for mortality and/or hospital admission. Evidence of criterion validity was rare. The extent to which measures possess validity across the younger adult age (18-59 years) spectrum was unclear. There was no evidence about the impact of measuring frailty in younger populations on patient outcomes and care. CONCLUSIONS: Limited evidence suggests that frailty measures have predictive validity in younger populations. Further research is needed to clarify the validity of measures across the adult age spectrum, and explore the utility of measuring frailty in younger groups.

Healthy ageing for all? Comparisons of socioeconomic inequalities in health expectancies over two decades in the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing life expectancy (LE), cross-sectional data show widening inequalities in disability-free LE (DFLE) by socioeconomic status (SES) in many countries. We use longitudinal data to better understand trends in DFLE and years independent (IndLE) by SES, and how underlying transitions contribute. METHODS: The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are large population-based studies of those aged ≥65 years in three English centres (Newcastle, Nottingham, Cambridgeshire), with baseline around 1991 (CFAS I, n = 7635) and 2011 (CFAS II, n = 7762) and 2-year follow-up. We defined disability as difficulty in activities of daily living (ADL), dependency by combining ADLs and cognition reflecting care required, and SES by area-level deprivation. Transitions between disability or dependency states and death were estimated from multistate models. RESULTS: Between 1991 and 2011, gains in DFLE at age 65 were greatest for the most advantaged men and women [men: 4.7 years, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 3.3-6.2; women: 2.8 years, 95% CI 1.3-4.3]. Gains were due to the most advantaged women having a reduced risk of incident disability [relative risk ratio (RRR):0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.8], whereas the most advantaged men had a greater likelihood of recovery (RRR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.2) and reduced disability-free mortality risk (RRR: 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.6]. Risk of death from disability decreased for least advantaged men (RRR: 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.9); least advantaged women showed little improvement in transitions. IndLE patterns across time were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention should target the most disadvantaged areas, to narrow inequalities, with clear indication from the most advantaged that reduction in poor transitions is achievable.

What matters to people with multiple long-term conditions and their carers?

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple long-term conditions is increasing worldwide. This presents challenges for health and care systems, which must adapt to meet the needs of this population. This study drew on existing data to understand what matters to people living with multiple long-term conditions and identify priorities for future research. METHODS: Two studies were conducted. (1) A secondary thematic analysis of interview, survey and workshop data collected from the 2017 James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership for Older People with Multiple Conditions, and patient and public involvement workshops; (2) a review of ongoing research and published research priorities, relating to older people (80+) living with multiple long-term conditions. FINDINGS: Older people with multiple long-term conditions identified a number of key concerns: access to care, support for both the patient and their carer, physical and mental health and well-being and identifying opportunities for early prevention. The review identified no published research priorities or ongoing research focusing specifically on populations aged over 80 years with multiple long-term conditions. CONCLUSION: Older people living with multiple long-term conditions experience care that is inadequate for their needs. A holistic approach to care that extends beyond treating single conditions will ensure wide-ranging needs are met. As multimorbidity rises worldwide, this is a critical message for practitioners across health and care settings. We also recommend key areas that should be given greater focus in future research and policy to inform effective and meaningful forms of support for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

Metabolic risk factors and incident advanced liver disease in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD): A systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Many individuals have risk factors associated with NAFLD, but the majority do not develop advanced liver disease: cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. Identifying people at high risk of experiencing these complications is important in order to prevent disease progression. This review synthesises the evidence on metabolic risk factors and their potential to predict liver disease outcomes in the general population at risk of NAFLD or with diagnosed NAFLD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov) were searched up to 9 January 2020. Studies were included that reported severe liver disease outcomes (defined as liver cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, or liver-related death) or advanced fibrosis/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in adult individuals with metabolic risk factors, compared with individuals with no metabolic risk factors. Cohorts selected on the basis of a clinically indicated liver biopsy were excluded to better reflect general population risk. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUIPS tool. The results of similar studies were pooled, and overall estimates of hazard ratio (HR) were obtained using random-effects meta-analyses. Of 7,300 unique citations, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were of sufficient quality, with 18 studies contributing data suitable for pooling in 2 random-effects meta-analyses. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of incident severe liver disease events (adjusted HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.83-2.76, p < 0.001, I2 99%). T2DM data were from 12 studies, with 22.8 million individuals followed up for a median of 10 years (IQR 6.4 to 16.9) experiencing 72,792 liver events. Fourteen studies were included in the meta-analysis of obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m2) as a prognostic factor, providing data on 19.3 million individuals followed up for a median of 13.8 years (IQR 9.0 to 19.8) experiencing 49,541 liver events. Obesity was associated with a modest increase in risk of incident severe liver disease outcomes (adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28, p < 0.001, I2 87%). There was also evidence to suggest that lipid abnormalities (low high-density lipoprotein and high triglycerides) and hypertension were both independently associated with incident severe liver disease. Significant study heterogeneity observed in the meta-analyses and possible under-publishing of smaller negative studies are acknowledged to be limitations, as well as the potential effect of competing risks on outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this review, we observed that T2DM is associated with a greater than 2-fold increase in the risk of developing severe liver disease. As the incidence of diabetes and obesity continue to rise, using these findings to improve case finding for people at high risk of liver disease will allow for effective management to help address the increasing morbidity and mortality from liver disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018115459.